Bayesian theory and growing up

Bayesian is a thing in statical that helps statisticians predict the probability of an event. The intuition behind it is simple: When we have data of an event we can compute the probability in which the event occurs. As we collect more data, we can use it to update our model. Gradually our predictions become less wrong. This makes Bayesian an intuitive and powerful tool.

Growing up is similar to that, When we observe the world, we build our beliefs about it, and the more we observe, the stronger our beliefs become.

At this stage of my life (21), I’ve observed life neither too long nor too short but enough for me to vaguely answer questions like the meaning of life? who I wanna be?

But how do I know my answers are right? I’ve read somewhere that the stage from 21 to 30 is the time we start to form our personalities, in other words, we are building ourselves. We are forming our beliefs about the world, or As in bayesian, our prediction are becoming less wrong.

Stronger seem better but in a way, it’s harder to change. Our beliefs are becoming numb.

Nothing worse than a man with a closed mind, In the end, it'll bring him to a mediocre and miserable life.

One way to avoid this in statistic is to collect more data that has different characteristics with our old data, this will widen the distribution.

In a world that is constantly changing, curiosity and never stop learning is the key, we should always keep our mind open.

Or in life, we need to experience more. Try different lifestyles to see the world from different perspectives. Travel to learn about cultural diversity.

And the most important: Be curious.

To myself: Growing up is fun, enjoy it, but don’t lose yourself.